20 Aug 2026 · Thesis
The Big 5
Semiconductors, energy, AI, space and defence are one story about physical constraint — and they increasingly bottleneck each other.
Five industries decide what the next fifty years physically can and cannot do: semiconductors, energy, artificial intelligence, space and defence. They are not five stories. They are one story about physical constraint — fabrication, power, compute, lift and deterrence.
Software ate the world, then discovered the world has a supply chain.
Most coverage of these sectors is financial or promotional. Very little explains the mechanism: where capacity comes from, how long it takes to build, who owns the single-vendor chokepoints, and which constraint binds first.
Predictions concentrate in semiconductors and energy. Analysis ranges wider — a record spread across twenty industries could never tell skill from luck.