Packaging Constraint
The capacity that gates shipments stays booked out through 2027.
70% · resolves 31 Dec 2027 Open
Predictions
A Prediction (I put the Research into Predictions that how its going to Impact the Industries with Date & Prediction score). Go Ahead with Prediction score i.e. How close it is to be True.
Transformer Lead Times
Modelled new capacity against lead times, and got it wrong.
55% · resolves 30 Sep 2026 Wrong
Nothing matches that search.
2 made
1 resolved
0% correct
Rules, fixed before the first call
- Every prediction states four things: the claim, a resolution date, a confidence as a number, and what would prove it wrong.
- Confidence is a percentage, never a word. "Likely" cannot be scored.
- Resolution runs against a named public source, chosen when the call is made, not when it resolves.
- Nothing is deleted or quietly reworded. Resolutions are appended, never written over the claim.
- A call that cannot be wrong is not published.
- Roughly one essay in four carries a call. No call is better than a forced one.