Prediction · made 19 May 2026
Transformer lead times shorten as new winding capacity lands
- Confidence
- 55%
- Made
- 19 May 2026
- Resolves
- 30 Sep 2026
- Status
- Wrong
- Proved wrong by
- Median quoted lead time unchanged or longer at the resolution date.
- Resolution source
- Published utility procurement schedules.
Resolved 30 Sep 2026
Lead times were flat to slightly longer. I counted announced capacity rather than commissioned capacity, and two of the three new lines had not started shipping. The error was in the input, not the model — which is the more embarrassing kind.