Prediction · made 12 Oct 2026

Packaging capacity remains the binding constraint on accelerator shipments

Confidence

70%

Made

12 Oct 2026

Resolves

31 Dec 2027

Status

Open

Proved wrong by

Lead times falling below 20 weeks, or a named vendor publicly citing a different binding constraint.

Resolution source

Quarterly earnings calls of the three largest OSAT providers.

Argued in Advanced packaging is the bottleneck, not the node.

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